It seems money is shifting from the West to the Far East.
The highest economic powerhouse is the USA, with a GDP of $17.5 trillion. China is next with $10 trillion GDP. Japan is the third with $4.5 trillion.
Many economists estimate that by 2020, China will be the first in GDP size.
China’s trade surplus keeps growing. In August 2014, it reached a record of $49.8 billion, up from $28.5 billion a year earlier, and up from the previous month, July 2014, of $47.3.
Chinese officials have officially set up a goal to be number one global economy by 2020. All indications point favorably to that goal.
This shift of wealth is likely also to affect China’s neighbors such as Singapore and Hong Kong.
Economic indicators show that Singapore will be number one in the world in terms of GNP per capita, by 2020. It is already the third in the world.
Europe is having its economic problems. The integration of the Euro currency did not bring fruit to Europe. The argument now is not whether to continue the Euro, but whether some European countries will pull out of it. Already Germany is complaining, and German voters may decide the election based on the Euro issue, more than anything else. In France, many loud voices want to pull out of the Euro Zone.
In the USA, the recovery has been fragile. After 6 years of almost zero-point interest rate, growth is not promising.
China will keep growing its manufacturing and exports. Its target is for 7.5 GDP growth this year, which is a very good growth rate for a 1.3 billion population. However, its growth may not be without interruptions. A hard landing is expected soon. Real estate bubble may be the main cause.
On the other hand, the US may experience a better growth within 2-3 years. By 2017, the US will be energy sufficient to the extent that no oil imports will be required. Another important potential is the next revolution of the Nanotechnology.
In the early 1990’s, the US economy enjoyed a healthy growth because of the internet revolution.
Will the Nano revolution create the same growth?
In my humble opinion, Yes.
Will that maintain the US as the number one economy in the world?
I know these are sheer predictions. The future is unpredictable by its nature.
Nevertheless, it seems to me that China is on a solid track for that number one status. It might experience some hiccups, but the end seems very promising.